The recent revolutionary wave sweeping in Arab countries leaves some lingering doubts about the immediate economic prospects and the consequences on social and health care.
Five Countries will Fall into Recession in 2011: Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia and Libya.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF), gathering financial leaders from more than 70 countries in the world since 1983, published the growth forecasts for the MENA countries confronted with a major social and political turmoil since the beginning of the year. In this study, the Arab oil importers countries are set to fall into recession in 2011. Yemen will be the most affected with a contraction by 4 per cent of the GDP. Indeed, Syria also will contract by 3 per cent, Egypt by 2.5 per cent and Tunisia by 1.5 per cent.
Quite the contrary, growth of Arab oil-exporters countries will rise sharply. The combined current account surplus is set to surge from $129 billion to $292 billion, raising the level of their gross foreign assets to $1.7 trillion by year end. This forecast ties up with what The Economist video analysis (see below) demonstrated on economical and socio-demographical factors which could explain mass popular protests.
Comparison with different crisis signs in Arab world (The Economist, 2011)
For an Inclusive Growth: Health for All
The International Monetary Fund whom published in April a report on the regional economy of the Middle-East and the Central Asia has a similar statement. The specialists are issuing strong warnings, less pessimistic, about economic concerns: a two-tier economy will trigger a large gap between oil-producers and oil-importers countries. And, further, social challenges remain essential to facilitate the emergence of an “inclusive growth” and the extend of the social coverage. The Jordan Health Minister, Yassin Husban, has met these preoccupations when he announced on the TV the extend of the health insurance to the 13 per cent of the population without any coverage.
According to the International Labour Organisation, the unemployment rate among the 15-24 years is 25 per cent in Arab world. In Egypt and Jordan, this rate among young women is up than 40 per cent. Robert B. Zoellick from the World Bank, in his speech last April 6, has the same idea: the public policies should implement a “new social contract” by an institutional and participatory reform, by job creation for young people (like in Jordan, Tunisia or Lebanon where such programs were planned), following the theory developped by Marcus Noland and Howard Pack.
MENA Threatens to Split into a Two-Tier Health
Nonetheless, recession times have more often excluded people from healthcare coverage. And if no relevant policy of “shared prosperity” is implemented quickly, social unrest may spread and grow. Every Monday our press reviews highlight the strength of private investments in healthcare in the Middle-East and Gulf region: public institutions provide weak healthcare, albeit private sector is a byword for quality. We have analyzed the case of Egypt where strong reform of health insurance could not solve discrepancies due to corruption.
The insurance sector is widely present to offset the failings and the shortcomings of the public system. Moreover when the governments want to extend the social coverage for all at any price, these policies lead to the deterioration of the quality of care, giving to private providers the services or the financial support for specific care.
